Last week, Hinge released the 10th anniversary edition of the High Growth Study. If you haven’t downloaded it already, why not do it now? It’s okay—I’m not offended. Just don’t forget to come back!
We are mighty proud of this milestone. But our interest in high-growth firms began way back in 2007, when we began collecting data for a report we released the following year titled Defying Gravity. Its name may or may not have been influenced by a hit song in the Broadway musical Wicked. Here was the report’s cover, which may or may not have been inspired by Mary Poppins:
It wasn’t until a few years later, however, that we began studying this group of high-performing firms more systematically. In 2016, we launched our first annual High Growth Study. We segmented our sample into three growth categories:
- High Growth—firms that had at least a 20% compound annual growth rate over three years
- No Growth—firms that achieved zero or negative growth
- Average Growth—the rest of the field
Here’s what growth rates looked like in 2016:
Here are the numbers today:
Remarkably consistent, right?. But a lot has changed under the hood.
How Things Used to Be
Over the past two decades, marketing and business development have undergone a significant transformation. When we started studying professional services, most firms were on an eternal quest for the holy grail of new business development: the word-of-mouth referral. Most of these referrals came from existing clients, and rest were generated by building awareness the old-fashioned way: in-person networking, traditional advertising and sponsorships.
These activities required a great deal of time, mostly from partners and senior executives. When they weren’t rubbing elbows at Chamber of Commerce events, tradeshows and conferences, these leaders were busy producing billable work for clients.
At the time, marketing involved creating slick-looking brochures and other printed materials to support the partners’ business development activities. Most firms had a website, but its function was primarily to support in-person business development. It was a place prospective clients could go to read about the firm, its services and its management team. Like a brochure that required a computer to read.
The problem with this whole approach to business development is that its reach was limited by the time people could spend out in the world making connections. While some firms were exposed to new markets by speaking and networking at regional and national events, their potential to reach new markets was still confined by the number of people they could see.
A big sea change came in the early 2000s with the rise of online search—especially Google—and search engine optimization (SEO). Most professional services leaders were slow to recognize the potential of these technologies. But over the next decade and a half, search, along with other digital marketing techniques such as pay-per-click advertising, would completely change the way marketing worked.
Not surprisingly, we also witnessed a dramatic shift in the way buyers of services behaved. The number of referrals that firms received began a long, steady decline. At the same time, the number of buyers who looked online to find a service provider soared, eventually becoming the most common way buyers learned about professional services firms. Instead of asking friends and colleagues for a recommendation, they looked online. They read up on their business problems. They watched a lot of webinars.
Pretty soon, many of these folks latched onto a particular expert or firm, which they trusted and came to admire. At this point, the sale was pretty much in the bag whenever the prospect was ready to buy.
It was amazing. Content marketing could drive real sales—a lot of them! Firms that used to have local or regional reputations found themselves reaching eager audiences around the country, and even the world. For those firms that recognized the value of producing high-quality content and knew how to help people find it online, the potential to grow seemed limitless.
Now, let’s close our history books and talk about what’s happening right now. I’ve chosen two sets of data from the 2025 study to frame the discussion.
A Once-in-a-Generation Challenge
First up is a list of professional services firms’ top challenges.
This chart shows the top five business challenges across all segments in our research sample. The first challenge, “incorporating artificial intelligence and automation into your business,” leads by a commanding thirteen percentage points. It was mentioned by over half of the sample—the strongest showing we’ve seen for any single challenge since we began our study. That includes the pandemic years’ runaway top concern: “unpredictability in the marketplace.”
This finding suggests that AI is poised to become a disruptive force like we’ve never seen before. Despite the technology’s bumpy start, most firm leaders appear to be taking it seriously. As AI matures, it promises to deliver extraordinary new efficiencies, insights and power. Firms that can harness its potential early-on could enjoy a significant competitive advantage. Those that fail to invest in these technologies, however, could find themselves outmoded, obsolete and out of the picture.
At the same time, many professionals worry that AI could take their jobs. Experts believe this is a very real possibility, with lower-skill, rule-based tasks most at risk. Many routine accounting, legal, data analysis and similar activities may be largely automated in the coming years. More complex processes probably aren’t far behind. True expertise, however, appears to be safe. At least for now.
Clearly, AI gives business leaders plenty to worry about.
The next item on this list is also worth discussing. Firms are noticing a great deal of competition from firms they’ve never encountered before. This could be explained in part by the “pandemic effect”—professionals who left jobs at large firms during the Great Resignation to start their own businesses. The Census Bureau reports that new business job applications in the professional services sector are up 45-50% over pre-pandemic levels (and increased 90% for businesses of all stripes).
Another contributing factor is mergers and acquisitions. Ongoing consolidation is removing many small and medium-sized competitors (and some giant ones, too) from the map, creating open territory for new players to fill.
The Rise of the Expertise Marketer
The second chart I’d to explore is this one:
This chart shows high-growth firms’ top marketing priorities for 2025. The top three items have remained the same—and in the same positions—over the last three years. Moving into this list for the first time is the fourth item: “developing thought leaders.” I believe this new emphasis on thought leaders represents a fundamental shift in the way savvy firms approach marketing. In fact, every item in this top-five list supports this approach. Let me explain.
Content marketing in one form or another has been around forever. But it really became a go-to marketing strategy when businesses began using SEO to make their content visible on Google. As I described in last week’s Pivot, the introduction of AI summaries and other changes to Google’s search results pages have depressed conventional content marketing’s potential. And many people wonder what will take its place.
Content marketing isn’t going away. It simply has to evolve to fit the new rules.
A growing number of high-growth firms realize that the true value lies not in the size of their content library, but in the visibility of their experts. By giving interested people access to their expertise in all the places those people are consuming business-related content, smart firms can build a loyal following. It’s not just about being found on Google anymore. It’s about being present in the various places their audience goes to learn about their business challenges—blogs, conferences, podcasts and social media platforms, to name just a few.
The most successful firms will 1) know where these relevant places are, and 2) how to present their expertise in a way that engages their audiences and builds loyalty. All the other activities on this list—creating content, differentiation, social media marketing and outreach—directly support this expertise marketing strategy.
How are you addressing today’s marketplace challenges?
Happy marketing!
Don’t forget to grab your free copy of the 2025 High Growth Study Executive Summary! There’s lots to learn!
